If the polls are right, Angela Merkel is heading for four more years at the top in Germany. But when Germans vote on 24 September, far more is at stake than one of the biggest jobs in Europe.
For the first time since World War Two, six parties are expected to enter the Bundestag, including a group of right-wing nationalists.
What's so important?
This is the first national vote since the Merkel government opened Germany's doors to an influx of migrants and refugees in 2015, letting in almost 900,000 people.
The conservative chancellor promised Germans they would manage, and they did. But politically her Christian Democrat (CDU) party took a hit, at least for a time. She is seeking a fourth term as chancellor.
Big changes are taking place in German politics. It is fragmenting, and there is a real chance that the anti-immigration, anti-Islam Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is not yet represented in parliament, could secure third place.
So far AfD is only represented on a regional level. Some of its candidates have expressed far-right statements.
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